26. January 2012 by Publius.

Well, suddenly it looks like Newt Gingrich might be the Republican nominee. So, just to get a leg up on how the 2012 election might shape up, lets examine the differences between the leftist Obama and the rightist (it obviously should be a word) Gingrich:

• On taxes:
  • Obama believes that Warren Buffet does not pay enough in taxes.
  • Gingrich believes that Mitt Romney does not pay enough in taxes.
• Cap and trade:
  • Obama: “Under my plan of a cap and trade system, electricity price would necessarily skyrocket … Because I’m capping greenhouse gases, coal power plants, natural gas—you name it—whatever the plants were, whatever the industry was, they would have to retrofit their operations. That will cost money. They will pass that money on to consumers.”
  • Gingrich: ”I think if you have mandatory carbon caps combined with a trading system, much like we did with sulfur, and if you have a tax-incentive program for investing in the solutions, that there’s a package there that’s very, very good. And frankly, it’s something I would strongly support.”
• Global warming:
  • Obama: “All across the world, in every kind of environment and region known to man, increasingly dangerous weather patterns and devastating storms are abruptly putting an end to the long-running debate over whether or not climate change is real. Not only is it real, it’s here, and its effects are giving rise to a frighteningly new global phenomenon: the man-made natural disaster.”
  • Gingrich: “We do agree. Our country must take action on climate change.”
• Paul Ryan budget:
  • Obama criticized the Ryan budget.
  • Gingrich: ”I don’t think right wing social engineering is any more desirable than left wing social engineering.”

So it is obvious that there are clear dif… Oh… wait… they are actually the same guy. Or at least sharing one brain.

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6. January 2012 by Publius.

From the Department of Labor (unmassaged numbers): (follow menu item 1 to see the numbers)
In December 2008 there were 135,254,000 people employed.
In December 2011 there were 132,721,000 people employed.
That means there has been a loss of 2,533,000 jobs in the last 3 years.

That much is fact. Now for some mathemagic…. U.S. population has historically grown at a rate of 1.3%/year. If that has held true for the last 3 years, then the population has grown by roughly 11,800,000 people. If you assume that the increase in uniform for all age groups, then the population between 18 and 65 then the growth of the population segment that is (theoretically) looking for a job has grown by 7,700,000 in the last three years.

Therefore the true increase in unemployment is 10,000,000!
Welcome to the obama recovery.

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19. November 2011 by Publius.

In fact, these protesters making the claim that they represent 99% of the people is about the silliest thing I’ve ever heard. 54% of Americans own stock. While 1.5% of Americans belong to the National Rifle Association, between 35% to 50% own a gun. 20% of Americans smoke tobacco. 40% of high school seniors have used marijuana.

The only point I am trying to make is that this country is not 99% anything. You have to twist divisions out of all rationality to imply that kind of unity. 99% of Americans have eaten a tomato. The difference between that (imaginary) statistic and the claim of the 99ers is that eating a tomato is a binary event. Each person  either has eaten a tomato, or has not. Group membership is clear - perhaps there is a market for t-shirt makers here. Economic level, however, is a spectrum. There is no significant difference between someone in the top 1% of income earners and those in the top 2%, or top 5%. This whole thing is just a rhetorical tool used by hate mongers to imply some sort of justified class warfare. It’s baloney.

This movement is being orchestrated online. The advocates claim this as proof of democratization (note to self: a topic for another column), it is, rather, proof of their idiocy. How do people with smart phones and computers justify themselves as downtrodden? Neither is a necessity of life, neither is a right. These people are among the world’s elite - put there by the system they condemn.

And if they want to complain about inequality, I submit that there is a greater difference between the elite and the not-s0-elite under socialism than under capitalism. And, under socialism, the stratification is far more rigid than under capitalism.

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2. November 2011 by Publius.

Here is is, an entire year before the election, and I’m bored already.

Oh, I know how important it is, and I know how complicated the issues
are, but the rhetoric is just… so… flaming… stupid.

Obama keeps spouting Keynesian economic drivel while emasculating Congress
and gutting the Constitution. I realize that Executive Orders have been abused
long before Obama took office, but he is using them in new and innovative ways
to completely gut the checks and balances that were supposed to prevent this
type of power grab.

Of course, it’s not his fault alone. Congress is doing it’s best to help him.
The Super-Committee that is supposed to reduce spending, when the Congress cannot
(And does anyone seriously believe it stands a chance of working?) is the ultimate
abrogation of their authority - and they did it volunarily!

Maybe it’s not boredom, maybe it’s anger and frustration.

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2. October 2011 by Publius.

It is time to remember Carl Menger. He is usually noted for founding the Austrian school of economics. His critical discovery, however, was far more basic. His whole system was based on uncertainty; like Kurt Vonnegut in a later time, he believed that nobody knows what is really going on. The German economists, whom he opposed, followed the German philosophers Kant, Hegel, and Nietzsche and accepted their belief in the rational superman who could, in fact, know everything.

This is the fundamental difference in belief that leads, in those who follow Menger, to free markets while those who follow the Germans are inevitably lead to some form of socialism.

So, today this philosophical difference boils down to this: for the Keynesians to be correct, it must be possible for the rational superman to exist, and, in addition, our leaders must be numbered among them. Whatever you believe about the possible existence of supermen, I submit that you cannot possibly believe that the world leaders, whether political, social, or economic, are among them.

Menger’s solution, on the other hand, requires that economic decisions are essentially chaotic. Menger lived far before chaos theory was understood, or even proposed,  but had the mathematical tools been available to him, he would have embraced chaos theory. His belief in uncertainty led him to believe that it was best that economic decisions where best distributed over large numbers. Had he understood chaos, he would have understood that they must be so distributed.

Coming soon - the role of Nash equilibria in economic decisions.

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18. August 2011 by Publius.

This news report from the Government News Service has been found:

Washington DC (GNS) —

Tomorrow President Obama will finally make public his new job plan. President Obama will announce the formation of the Department of Jobs. The new DoJo (to distinguish it from the Department of Justice) will absorb the old Departments of Labor, HEW, Energy, EPA and Treasury.

By taking on the duties of the absorbed departments, DoJo will be responsible for seeing that every citizen contributes his fair share to the country. For each individual this contribution will be optimally allocated between financial contribution and labor. As part of this plan, every citizen will be provided with a job when they reach their 18^th birthday. In order to maximize the utilization of resources this job will be allocated by the Department of Jobs to whatever sector and whatever state DoJo determines to be in greatest needs. Waivers will be granted to the families of elected officials and any non-elected officials above GS-13.

By folding the functions of the old Environmental Protection Agency, DoJo gains the enforcement capability they need. Since CO₂ has already been determined to be a pollutant, if a citizen is determined to be unable to contribute their fair share, their license to produce CO₂ will be revoked.

Initial funding for the Department has been set at $1.3 trillion. The President warned, however, that this was merely an initial estimate and that it might have to be increased. His candor received enthusiastic applause from the Press Corps.

On the podium with President Obama while he announced the plan were Republican Senator John McCain and Representative John Boehner. Reports that Mr. Boehner was bound and gagged were dismissed by the White House.

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8. June 2011 by Publius.

Much has been made about the divisions in the American polity. Pleas have been made, “Can’t we all just get along?” Yet on issue after issue, the American people split 50/50. It seems amazing - how can people be so different on every single issue?Well, it’s inevitable actually. If opinion isn’t split - it’s not an issue. 99% of the people agree that murder is a crime, so we don’t discuss it. 99% of people don’t care whether other people eat carrots, so we don’t discuss it.It is only those issues upon which we are divided that discussions take place. It is inevitable. It is a law of behavior that I am calling The Principle of Political Division. It states that only items not decided on will center political discussion. It is the principle that underlies the movement of the Overton Window.

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3. June 2011 by ropsnobi.

The definition of bankrupt is that you are unable to meet your legally derived financial obligations. The United States is one decision away from that condition.

We owe more than $14 trillion dollars. The government’s income from taxes is roughly $700 billion dollars. When the interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds hits 5% we will be officially bankrupt.

The government is quite aware of this, which is why they have been printing money as fast as the presses will turn in order to inflate the currency. However, this has worried world governments about the stability of the dollar. This has already resulted in discussions about replacing the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. As our government continues to inflate our currency, these worries will grow.

When the dollar is replaced (most likely by the yuan) we will lose the powers which result from being the reserve currency. This includes setting the interest rates for most of the world’s econonomies.

Once the government can no longer keep interest rates artificially low, expect them to immediately go to roughly 7%.

And then we’re bankrupt.

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1. October 2010 by Publius.

What is? Plastic, by boy, plastic! The question is, “Are reusable plastic grocery bags a good idea?”

First studies have shown that the sale of disposable plastic bags goes up by a factor of four in jurisdictions that require the use of reusable bags. Why is that? It’s because people are not stupid. They had all these bags they brought home from the grocery store and they used them. They used them for garbage bags, they used them for lunch bags, they used them to pick up dog poop. When they no longer had those bags available, they had to buy bags. The interesting point is that since the bags people buy are heavier than the bags the grocery stores gave away, there was a net increase in the amount (and quality) of plastic going into our landfills. And, oh yeah, paper bag usage also increases with the concomittant economic and environmental costs.

Now, it turns out that using reusable bags can make you sick unless you wipe it out with a chlorine containing wipe (and what is the economic and environmental cost of that?)

 http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/25181234/detail.html

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1. October 2010 by Publius.

One of the Democrats’ litanies is “Look - it’s not us - the Republicans spend money like crazy, too!”

Republican presidents have averaged a deficit of 1.19% of GDP.

Democrat presidents have averaged a deficit of 3.8% of GDP.

Years with Republican control of the House (where spending originates) averages 0.64% GDP.

Years with Democrat control of the House (where spending originates) averages 2.58% GDP.

Data is for the period 1900-2010. If we postulate that Republicans are not angels, where does that leave the Democrats? (Hint: you’re getting warmer…)

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